Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PD 2720 · IAD → YTZ
departs 11:14 AM ET · arrives 1:17 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 7%
Sat 10/31 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.