Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PHILIPPINE AIRLINES · FLIGHT PR 124
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
PR 124 · MNL → SEA
departs 10:34 PM PST · arrives 7:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MNL
Weather at each end
MNL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.