PR 126 · MNL → JFK

departs 8:11 PM PST · arrives 11:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MNL

Weather at each end

MNL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PR 126 · MNL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?