Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 3 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

QF 3 · AKL → JFK

departs 4:35 AM NZDT · arrives 3:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AKL

Weather at each end

AKL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 3 · AKL → JFK

Odds over time