QK 537 · LGA → YTZ

took off 6:41 PM ET · landed 7:53 PM EDT (scheduled 6:30 PM ET → 8:06 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YTZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YTZ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 537 · LGA → YTZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to YTZ?