QK 597 · SMF → YVR

took off 4:03 PM PT · landed 5:45 PM PDT (scheduled 4:00 PM PT → 6:18 PM PDT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YVR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SMF that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 597 · SMF → YVR

Odds over time

How late did it get to YVR?