Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 891 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

QK 891 · YYZ → STL

departs 7:24 PM EDT · arrives 8:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 891 · YYZ → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?