QX 2000 · YKM → SEA

took off 3:09 PM PT · landed 3:41 PM PT (scheduled 2:52 PM PT → 3:47 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at YKM that day

Weather at each end

YKM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2000 · YKM → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?