Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
QX 2003 · YVR → PDX
departs 12:34 PM PDT · arrives 1:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at PDX that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.