Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
QX 2005 · SEA → YVR
departs 11:41 AM PT · arrives 12:46 PM PDT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at YVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YVR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YVR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
YVR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.