Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
QX 2015 · YVR → SEA
departs 3:19 PM PDT · arrives 4:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.