QX 2029 · PDX → SBA

took off 5:46 PM PT · landed 7:35 PM PT (scheduled 5:31 PM PT → 7:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2029 · PDX → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?