RV 1676 · YYZ → MCO

took off 4:56 PM EDT · landed 7:16 PM ET (scheduled 4:50 PM EDT → 7:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1676 · YYZ → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?