RV 1786 · OGG → YVR

departs 9:45 PM HT · arrives 6:35 AM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 9pm departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.27 in

YVR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1786 · OGG → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?