Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8147 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

SY 8147 · RIC → ORF

departs 4:49 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from RIC are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,414 ft Visibility8.71429 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8147 · RIC → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?