SY 8664 · IAD → ATW

departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8664 · IAD → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?