Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 581 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:44 AM ET, ETA 7:42 AM CST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

TA 581 · IAD → SAL

took off 5:44 AM ET · expected to land 7:42 AM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 581 · IAD → SAL

Odds over time