Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 583 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:19 PM ET, ETA 7:15 PM CST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

TA 583 · IAD → SAL

took off 5:19 PM ET · expected to land 7:15 PM CST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 583 · IAD → SAL

Odds over time