Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 10
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
TK 10 · LAX → IST
departs 8:27 PM PT · arrives 7:09 PM +03
Your aircraft is TCJJL (B77W), coming in as TK 9 from IST: landed 5:14 PM PT.
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.