TK 12 · JFK → IST

took off 1:43 AM ET · expected to land 5:10 PM +03 (scheduled 1:38 AM ET → 5:42 PM +03)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IST?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1am departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IST (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TK 12 · JFK → IST

Odds over time

How late will it get to IST?