Schedule: FAA flight plans.

TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 186 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:26 PM CT, ETA 6:49 AM +03)
Today

TK 186 · ORD → IST

took off 1:26 PM CT · expected to land 6:49 AM +03 (scheduled 12:46 PM CT → 6:46 AM +03)
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Odds over time

Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
34% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.6d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Now Lands

How late will it get to IST?

LIVE
  1. On time or early
    66%
  2. 15–30 min late
    31%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    0%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.