Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 201
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
TK 201 · IST → DEN
departs 3:38 PM +03 · arrives 7:04 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 22%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.