Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
TK 202 · DEN → IST
departs 8:56 PM MT · arrives 5:09 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 15%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.