Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 8
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
TK 8 · IAD → IST
departs 9:58 PM ET · arrives 2:21 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.