TP 209 · LIS → JFK

departs 4:36 PM WET · arrives 8:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIS

Weather at each end

LIS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 209 · LIS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?