UA 1219 · ORD → LAX

departs 10:28 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1219 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?