Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1227 LANDED 7:30 PM PT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1227 · SFO → ACV

took off 6:47 PM PT · landed 7:30 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1227 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time