UA 1407 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:08 AM CT · arrives 3:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1407 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?