UA 1527 · RSW → IAH

departs 7:02 AM ET · arrives 8:59 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1527 · RSW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?