UA 1540 · ORD → SJC

departs 9:16 AM CT · arrives 12:03 PM PT

Your aircraft is N801UA (A319), coming in as UA 2164 from ALB: landed 6:59 AM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1540 · ORD → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?