Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1589 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

departs 8:08 PM CT · arrives 10:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

MCI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?