Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1593 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 1593 · EWR → SFO

departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 12:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1593 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?