Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1707 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1707 · DEN → SNA

departs 1:48 PM MT · arrives 3:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1707 · DEN → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?