UA 1844 · EWR → SFO

departs 4:39 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1844 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?