UA 193 · GUM → ROR

took off 8:33 PM ChST · landed 9:12 PM +09 (scheduled 7:53 PM ChST → 9:12 PM +09)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at ROR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into ROR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ROR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 193 · GUM → ROR

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROR?