tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2015 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

UA 2015 · ORD → PHX

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.7d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    68%
  2. 15–30 min late
    19%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    8%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.