UA 201 · HNL → GUM

took off 3:28 PM HT · landed 6:39 PM ChST (scheduled 3:23 PM HT → 7:12 PM ChST)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GUM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

GUM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 201 · HNL → GUM

Odds over time

How late did it get to GUM?