Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2056 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 2056 · LAX → SFO

departs 9:34 PM PT · arrives 11:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2056 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?