UA 2059 · ORD → SFO

took off 10:27 PM CT · landed 12:34 AM PT (scheduled 9:12 PM CT → 12:15 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2059 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?