Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2095 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 2095 · IAH → RSW

departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

RSW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,871 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2095 · IAH → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?