UA 216 · DFW → SFO

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:44 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 216 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?