Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 3:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2281 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?