Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2422 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 2422 · OKC → DEN

departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from OKC are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2422 · OKC → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?