Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

UA 2427 · ORD → EUG

departs 8:59 AM CT · arrives 11:28 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG

↑ EUG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2427 · ORD → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?