UA 2620 · MCO → SFO

took off 6:41 PM ET · landed 9:01 PM PT (scheduled 6:13 PM ET → 8:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2620 · MCO → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?