UA 2636 · CLE → MCO

took off 8:51 AM ET · expected to land 10:51 AM ET (scheduled 8:44 AM ET → 11:17 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2636 · CLE → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?