UA 264 · SFO → SBP

took off 7:04 PM PT · landed 7:45 PM PT (scheduled 7:05 PM PT → 8:23 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 264 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBP?