Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

departs 6:43 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?