tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2863 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:42 AM PT, ETA 10:50 AM CT)
Today

UA 2863 · SMF → IAH

took off 5:42 AM PT · expected to land 10:50 AM CT (scheduled 5:15 AM PT → 11:01 AM CT)
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
5% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.3d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE
  1. On time or early
    95%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    <1%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    0%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.