UA 323 · PHL → DEN

took off 8:19 AM ET · expected to land 9:46 AM MT (scheduled 7:43 AM ET → 9:44 AM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 323 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?